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Prediction for CME (2025-03-19T02:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2025-03-19T02:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37902/-1 CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Bright streamer blowout CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME is visibly wider in STEREO A COR2 imagery than in SOHO imagery. The source of this CME appears to be a complex series of eruptions beginning with an eruption near N05E05 starting around 2025-03-19T00:39Z. This eruption may have triggered additional instability of nearby magnetic field line foot points, which may be associated with the streamer itself. Dimming is clearly seen to the east of the initial eruption location starting around 2025-03-19T06:00Z. It is also around this time that the CME appears to begin to speed up in the SOHO field of view with a more clear/defined front appearing around this time as well. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-22T19:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Prediction Method Note: Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Space weather advisor:Lead Time: 56.83 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-03-20T10:10Z |
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